MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa224cb3635a24ca771d1661310aaf5a6ba2c2a546eb640c1fbc9cd4af3a6fefc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,891$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 1,854$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 41c | 436$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.76 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 295.53$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 48c | 288.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 54c | 267.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 208$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 176.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 163.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 104.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 31c | 96.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 89.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 78.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 79c | 75.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 47c | 72.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 32c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 47c | 44.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 35.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 34.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 60c | 33.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 53c | 29.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 50c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 69c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 26.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601b…8378backed Under | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 52c | 25.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 47c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 70c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.