MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f3b1574e940f4905d1fd64ea6ba9aa94f73884790be94ece8ea4eac2f9320a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 7,226$4,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,530.72 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 4,349$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 3,901$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 3,568$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,959$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.86 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 2,641$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 2,451$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.37 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 1,524$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 1,411$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.54 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 1,150$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.74 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,003$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.83 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 1,002$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 908.09$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.85 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 821.25$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.75 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 731$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 614.44$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.34 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 547.83$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 461.43$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.7 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 459.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 450$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 412$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.84 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 374.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.04 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 359.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 321.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.61 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 290.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 187.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 184.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 160.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 13c | 142$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 131.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 131.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 114.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…27f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 108.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 103.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 75.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 74.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 71.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 65.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 65.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1261…b398backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 63.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 62.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 47.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…0afabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 34.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 26.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 23.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 23.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.