MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19859021c924c4f074f52c94c96b5eab7eda58f5e7902cc208fa7a2fc87a5194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 10,599$6,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 5,230$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 2,551$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 982.88$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.15 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 714.28$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.71 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 640$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 337$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 234.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 175.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 134.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 133$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 79.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 73.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 50.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.