MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a1a6d651ada34d5af2c7d98b3a7eba8ef0fdcb13e0530ef3aba44dc56a2d9dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 72c | 4,640$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 28c | 4,546$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.96 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 1c | 2,242$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 1,747$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 654.13$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 29c | 624$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.24 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 498.3$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 491.68$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.09 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 45c | 265.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 178.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…92e1backed Under | 7c | 144$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 143.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 24c | 108.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 60c | 96.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 40c | 96.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Under | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 68c | 73.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 77c | 64.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 70c | 60.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 22c | 53.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 30c | 47.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.