TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

World Championships: USA vs. Germany

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof USA, Germany
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd604…cb5fbacked Germany19c2,060$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.614438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x008d…b839backed Germany66c1,783$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.1145069.3%312 W · 138 L+51.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Germany21c1,721$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.63920.5%8 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked USA49c1,324$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.151656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed USA52c1,321$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.313259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked USA63c1,309$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.382356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked USA46c1,302$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6995444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Germany53c999.99$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.2132353.9%174 W · 149 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Germany28c984.54$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick53cpaid+47.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Germany48c825.41$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.081,02853.2%547 W · 481 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Germany55c789.56$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.15149%25 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fc…dbc6backed USA58c689.74$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed USA70c522.42$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.281,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed USA5c516.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.575655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked USA80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8c…3d1abacked USA61c497$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.98560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Germany77c486.38$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.591,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Germany22c450.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.996437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed USA71c444.84$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.72757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed USA78c415$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2310066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed USA47c389.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.361136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Germany31c378.97$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.454254.8%23 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48cb…1169backed USA80c375.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed USA4c375$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick3cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed USA45c370.57$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.7712733.1%42 W · 85 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed USA58c345.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.254353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked USA61c327.38$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7423950.6%121 W · 118 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Germany57c294.42$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.521776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick53cpaid+61.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebf6…c629backed USA31c243.56$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.485354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed USA70c228.54$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.282857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebd5…094cbacked Germany54c209.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9930845.8%141 W · 167 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Germany40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d1…f8c0backed Germany21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422060%12 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+151%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Germany52c194.82$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…db18backed Germany47c191.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Germany22c174.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7949747.9%238 W · 259 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked USA78c147.67$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2114551%74 W · 71 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c5…6483backed USA70c142.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked USA52c138.92$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1611251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…05f9backed USA78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Germany22c126.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285651.8%29 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed USA79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.589562.1%59 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd7…db07backed USA80c125.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6224259.1%143 W · 99 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked USA31c117.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.191687.5%14 W · 2 L+5.7wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+81.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked USA44c115.43$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.298529.4%25 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Germany44c115.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.418149.7%90 W · 91 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked USA77c114.44$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.442050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed USA75c102.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0627947.3%132 W · 147 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a12…7ab8backed Germany50c100.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Germany21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.543250.9%220 W · 212 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked USA78c99.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2245447.8%217 W · 237 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed USA78c99.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9911655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed USA78c97.5$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.458844.3%39 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed USA54c93.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9827037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4b…9f92backed Germany30c88.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.782969%20 W · 9 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+71.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa211…a283backed USA80c84.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.251241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Germany39c84.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67d…2de1backed Germany25c79.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…75dcbacked USA80c75.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.161855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked USA47c68.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1114347.6%68 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ae…1e53backed USA47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7398…29ebbacked Germany26c58.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Germany37c58.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked USA56c57.17$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eab…71abbacked Germany24c54.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd4…0a6fbacked USA47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.19887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52c1…1084backed USA40c51.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.171323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed USA29c51.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.152080%16 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Germany58c50.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63464.7%22 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed USA21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked USA30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…22cbbacked USA49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Germany21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked Germany26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed USA78c46.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4319657.1%112 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d38…0183backed Germany37c39.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked USA50c38.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.072755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f6…d815backed USA79c37.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed USA52c37.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.088043.8%35 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed USA53c33.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.694337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cfc…0556backed USA79c33.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973f…4b3ebacked USA63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebc…35c2backed USA79c27.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ddc…7b24backed USA54c26.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…28b8backed Germany55c25.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Germany57c25.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.242770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x670c…a7dfbacked USA77c21.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8917…be6fbacked USA80c21.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked USA61c20.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.895261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc061…a297backed USA80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5d…1e18backed USA80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a63…fe88backed USA71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4c…73d3backed USA79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Germany60c18.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8831448.7%153 W · 161 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Germany59c17.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed USA73c15.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.135100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+75.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.