MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc284a08a5c985492f82c92a871bbefccee8d0e21f48c95f284bbfac2ed1a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…52d1backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 49c | 2,995$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.55 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 49c | 2,551$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,395$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 51c | 1,123$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.72 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 1,097$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 1,035$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 1,005$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.45 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 888.9$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.45 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 824.6$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 513.04$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 49c | 489.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…a8a1backed Over | 51c | 482.92$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 427.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.57 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 48c | 414.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 75c | 398.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 355.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 200.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 199$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 142.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 112.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 111.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Over | 30c | 98.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 95.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 56c | 93.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 41c | 92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 78.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 70c | 68.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…29ebbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 34.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 75c | 31.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 49c | 23.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.