MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2223cc177d5dfb34bc161346f9b126a58d025c81134b1d7f47f07aefa965564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 3,506$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 3,003$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 2,990$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 1,082$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 827.47$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 623.63$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 534.58$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.86 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 321$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 319.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 243.78$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 236.45$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 214.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.61 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 90.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 49.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 49.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 39.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 37.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f96backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.