MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac97c5d65f81de38cd76e754a3bd133caf2f03cff8224fd326f2b35b2fa6c299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,499.98 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 49,204$25,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,093.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 0c | 25,822$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 49c | 2,012$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.21 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 1,479$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.52 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 1,422$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,420$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 1,403$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.61 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 846.92$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 49c | 822$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 821.12$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.46 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 47c | 740$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.2 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 730.37$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 656.81$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 531.47$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.74 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 23c | 372.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 354$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 49c | 337.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 298$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 15c | 220.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 50c | 188.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 50c | 181.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Under | 46c | 175.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 169$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 111.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Under | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 64c | 103$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 103$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 102.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 92.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 66c | 91.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 50c | 84.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243d…c2ecbacked Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 53c | 72.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 50c | 71.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 50c | 68.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 50c | 66.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…29ebbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Under | 50c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 44.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Under | 50c | 44.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 41.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…6d5fbacked Over | 50c | 36.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 50c | 33.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 25.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 64c | 20.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1392…04d7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…7b90backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4015…c724backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…666abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.