MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9f6c6a2f9f0190d07b71865372c844d2674c2c9ade9b7caf44ec4302340fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 5,909$4,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 3,129$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 2,937$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 1,057$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 882.35$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 807.95$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 784.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 306.73$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 303.8$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 301.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 17c | 183.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…8c3fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 167.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 167.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 167.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…be90backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 158.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 133.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 123.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 115.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 99.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2d…7a17backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 95.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 70.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Baltimore Orioles | 17c | 64.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 58.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3630backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 16.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.