MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ad5ac31b19ed21cbeae0d408a89483219befba4e5dd9ef128b9b472d4e3d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Under | 3c | 2,720$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 6c | 2,600$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 6c | 2,400$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Under | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 11c | 533.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 349.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 18c | 304.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 19c | 302.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 79c | 280.6$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 17c | 223$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 34c | 218.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 17c | 196.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 17c | 123$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 16c | 121.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 20c | 110.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 107.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 73c | 53.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.