MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf781464fa5bde90e02650f8547d5ff77d7c75db0ec802e4840ad24f3d4910ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 10,028$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,579.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 9,701$7,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,394.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 2,904$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 2,752$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 2,565$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.92 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 1,777$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.98 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 1,288$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.75 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 735.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.29 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 674$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 593.14$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.86 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 584.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.94 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 543.97$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.58 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 449.88$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 422.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 342.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 334.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.4 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 285.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 281.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 270.68$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 268$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 263.61$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 231.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 23c | 225.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 222.12$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…26e5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 205$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 183$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 178.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 172.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 134.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 131.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 123$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 100.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 89.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 80.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 60.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 60.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 58.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 56.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 53.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 53.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 50.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 45.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 43.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 38.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 18.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.