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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,319 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c57…40febacked Baltimore Orioles75c930$698 inLost-$697.521750.7%110 W · 107 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays25c658$165 inWon+$493.52,31552.5%1,216 W · 1,099 L+25.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays15c606.33$89 inWon+$516.988,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Tampa Bay Rays25c480$120 inWon+$36029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles75c465.3$349 inLost-$348.982,41848.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles75c406.74$304 inLost-$303.762,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays25c400$100 inWon+$30020138.8%78 W · 123 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Tampa Bay Rays25c399.99$100 inWon+$299.9926948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles78c341$267 inLost-$267.1511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays18c298$55 inWon+$242.968,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays22c284$64 inWon+$220.321,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Baltimore Orioles75c200$150 inLost-$15072648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays26c177$46 inWon+$131.451,89452.9%1,001 W · 893 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles75c109.23$82 inLost-$81.832,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc9…d80bbacked Baltimore Orioles76c91.72$70 inLost-$69.713554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays24c86.72$21 inWon+$65.913,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles80c40$32 inLost-$322,55045.8%1,168 W · 1,382 L-75.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Baltimore Orioles80c30$24 inLost-$2441936.5%153 W · 266 L-31.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.