Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f4555bdaf83d0d433f62013c005a73de4787ed737550f81a6d265fa28d976c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 21c | 21,105$4,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,354.33 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 14c | 7,102$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 31c | 6,427$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.89 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 52c | 6,212$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.75 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed No | 50c | 5,871$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 55c | 5,767$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,575.79 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 26c | 5,504$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.28 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 33c | 5,020$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.01 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 57c | 4,209$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.31 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 31c | 4,145$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.22 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 57c | 4,128$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 4c | 3,555$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 63c | 3,176$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 2,931$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.28 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,409$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 66c | 2,205$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.66 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed No | 61c | 2,118$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 12c | 1,965$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.82 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 74c | 1,957$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 1,945$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 29c | 1,808$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.1 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 63c | 1,584$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.06 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…8d47backed Yes | 50c | 1,577$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,480$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.27 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,434$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 1,400$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 8c | 1,370$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 37c | 1,344$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.26 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 33c | 1,269$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.06 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 49c | 1,235$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 43c | 1,226$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.61 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 75c | 1,200$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 23c | 1,112$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.37 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,050$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f200backed Yes | 29c | 1,006$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 11c | 958.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed No | 75c | 899.99$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 28c | 899.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 839.09$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 42c | 815$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 24c | 811.58$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…4e33backed Yes | 2c | 779.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 57c | 747$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 55c | 741.75$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…b863backed Yes | 50c | 733.1$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…cb3cbacked Yes | 9c | 696.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 685.39$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 661.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 63c | 628.17$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.42 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5a41backed Yes | 49c | 625.8$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3411…1214backed Yes | 22c | 612.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 601.15$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 24c | 600.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.46 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 24c | 579.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…7b4abacked Yes | 19c | 527.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 73c | 515.03$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…24d9backed Yes | 20c | 500.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes | 26c | 500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 18c | 491.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 58c | 465$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 44c | 452.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…b2bebacked No | 63c | 441.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 433.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed No | 73c | 417.62$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 32c | 408$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 51c | 407.32$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 77c | 375$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 63c | 370.05$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…3609backed No | 79c | 340.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked No | 70c | 329.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…cb60backed Yes | 7c | 326$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…f205backed Yes | 6c | 325.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 49c | 322.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 319.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…3abdbacked No | 63c | 312.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…518fbacked Yes | 50c | 305.51$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 50c | 302.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 52c | 300.47$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed Yes | 6c | 299.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 50c | 298$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…96cbbacked No | 53c | 280.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 27c | 280$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 65c | 279.06$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 10c | 274.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 74c | 272.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.