TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,921,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,161,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,921,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x033b…2f6bbacked No0c1,024,509$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed No0c510,000$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…ab26backed No0c342,810$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf4…9f7ebacked No0c334,722$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131f…c10fbacked No0c214,431$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbac…b9bebacked No1c200,527$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd60…d46bbacked No1c194,219$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…d2d8backed No0c181,153$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No0c180,877$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5738…7768backed No0c162,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed No0c156,610$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.281118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x677d…6701backed No0c156,154$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No0c155,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b37…b143backed No0c150,155$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccb…3f79backed No0c146,155$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed No0c130,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca3…5a7cbacked No0c113,180$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf2…0300backed No0c100,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec8…de72backed No1c93,606$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8b…0cdebacked No0c87,448$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb9…edc4backed No0c78,791$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.79616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d5…3ba6backed No0c68,178$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.01911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff5…9711backed No0c66,070$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc6…603cbacked No0c59,160$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked No0c57,500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No14c55,341$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,799.562119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf423…3b74backed No0c42,667$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…175cbacked No0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf354…5c13backed No0c39,083$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7508…f789backed No0c38,930$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2352…bb84backed No0c31,547$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…8d10backed No0c30,032$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe280…ed39backed No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No0c30,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.576229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef7c…650fbacked No0c29,878$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e91…42e5backed No0c28,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0281…c1bfbacked No0c27,490$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6594…05d1backed No0c26,723$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9c…e860backed No0c25,090$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3153…f15bbacked No0c24,990$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x586a…1cafbacked No0c24,167$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb579…71aabacked No1c23,094$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…bd37backed No0c22,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No0c21,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No10c20,786$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.031533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf020…e10abacked No1c20,326$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6608…4d0cbacked No0c20,039$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No0c20,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328f…4079backed No0c19,993$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…101ebacked No0c18,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No46c17,863$8,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,226.421816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7145…89e6backed No0c17,182$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x673b…4590backed No1c16,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a0…6b15backed No0c16,440$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…109fbacked No0c15,750$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No1c15,240$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.28253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cdd…1fedbacked No1c15,189$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…166bbacked No0c15,084$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-60.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No78c14,238$11,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0891233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No61c13,445$8,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,204.8317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29e0…d5b0backed No0c12,950$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb12…93f7backed No1c12,689$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1797…baa7backed No0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2190…d4b1backed No0c12,425$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No5c12,226$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.22075%15 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+78.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed No1c12,163$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb609…2aa3backed No0c11,625$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd862…6588backed No0c11,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7928…d566backed No0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed No0c10,633$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.261241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed No0c10,620$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa909…1c77backed No0c10,228$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ae…0d93backed No0c10,184$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No3c10,153$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.023625%9 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0445…622dbacked No0c10,130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed No1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…3583backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5221…8cd3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No60c9,892$5,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,900.764542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc389…ec7dbacked No0c9,718$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e90…3dc9backed No0c9,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No0c9,397$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9863…630cbacked No0c9,085$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4740…a50abacked No0c8,450$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed No64c7,822$5,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,014.071838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes35c7,649$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,991.11421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…8d6abacked No0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656e…d8d3backed No0c7,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb83…e612backed No0c7,140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No1c7,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422548%12 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes36c6,719$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.793852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed Yes36c6,679$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,280.35850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No73c6,541$4,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,752.981936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No71c6,437$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600.1111031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3716…67c8backed No0c6,270$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f90…8a1ebacked No0c6,083$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked No70c5,918$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.17850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.