Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8645ca8814a9872bdbe5fb8c2b0cfe00e94af1c5015e04c0733b8248ba1400c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e56…716abacked Yes | 35c | 13,625$4,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,856.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…9a7abacked No | 65c | 7,100$4,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,615 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…4cabbacked No | 65c | 6,525$4,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 5,446$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.94 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,954$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.84 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 79c | 1,832$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 19c | 1,280$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.9 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…554abacked No | 66c | 759.99$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 34c | 650$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 595.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 74c | 459.38$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…d6cabacked No | 19c | 429.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 7c | 421.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 19c | 421.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 12c | 401.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 11c | 370.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 277.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 63c | 252.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…6f9ebacked No | 45c | 223.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 8c | 217.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 68c | 205.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 7c | 201.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 73c | 180.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…8a2abacked Yes | 30c | 165.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 36c | 150.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 72c | 141.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 71c | 140$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…5462backed Yes | 73c | 136.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…3c05backed Yes | 73c | 116.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 68c | 116.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 101.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 28c | 100.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…99bebacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…f8acbacked Yes | 74c | 94.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…84d6backed No | 67c | 78.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…576fbacked Yes | 25c | 69.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…4cfdbacked No | 29c | 69.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…01fabacked Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…bd36backed Yes | 31c | 64.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 58.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…6a59backed Yes | 32c | 47.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…4b3ebacked Yes | 37c | 43.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c0…d54fbacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…9f7bbacked No | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Yes | 72c | 40.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…216bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…376abacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496c…c137backed No | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…13b5backed Yes | 44c | 37.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…ca48backed Yes | 35c | 35.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…c0bebacked Yes | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…5aabbacked No | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…438bbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b23…9b23backed Yes | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…e36fbacked Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…1affbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4860…0a3dbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 13.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?this page
- Will Barcelona finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Benfica finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Chelsea finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Galatasaray finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Inter Milan finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Juventus finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Manchester City finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Newcastle United finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Qarabağ finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Sporting CP finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur finish first in UCL league phase?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.