Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7587fb2ba4c3e610ef825b688c300446bae6c05096b78cbc26656964ac123e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c93…a00bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…b135backed Yes | 1c | 4,878$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 72c | 2,918$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.74 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 33c | 2,506$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 75c | 2,005$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.52 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…012abacked Yes | 8c | 1,730$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Yes | 5c | 1,712$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…6b8dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,059$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 6c | 994.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 10c | 696.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 683.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 13c | 669.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 19c | 428.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 34c | 413.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb494…cc5bbacked Yes | 41c | 403.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfc…a8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 387.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc645…0925backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 8c | 332.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 321.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 9c | 302.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +159%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 16c | 263.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…b2efbacked Yes | 18c | 252.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…5d7abacked Yes | 8c | 243.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 42c | 239.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…a493backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 223.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 7c | 171.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…1047backed Yes | 13c | 169.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 38c | 159.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 8c | 155.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 67c | 150.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 14c | 147.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9624…dc8fbacked Yes | 40c | 137.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b3…d68cbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 68c | 105.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 26c | 91.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…358ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 36c | 84.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…6a59backed Yes | 18c | 81.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Yes | 15c | 75.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…d53dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…99b3backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…81ddbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 62c | 59.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…e5e9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…376abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459d…6a27backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…0eebbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…5bdfbacked Yes | 41c | 36.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 56c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…5aabbacked No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…ed36backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?this page
- Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?Yes won
- Will Barcelona finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Benfica finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Chelsea finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Galatasaray finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Inter Milan finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Juventus finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Manchester City finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Newcastle United finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Qarabağ finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Sporting CP finish first in UCL league phase?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur finish first in UCL league phase?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.