Fifa International · resolved market
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6d93c81efec54a71a70e210b8a5e57476c6a988afda69338ee355014b195e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked No | 73c | 1,001$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.01 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 940.82$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.63 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 22c | 864.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 60c | 449.31$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 31c | 437.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 28c | 411.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 51c | 351.18$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…8961backed No | 79c | 341.31$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed No | 68c | 293.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 42c | 243$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 157.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…3055backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 29c | 122.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 52c | 118.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 113.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…1afebacked Yes | 30c | 104.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…783cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…fbb1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed Yes | 55c | 92.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 38c | 91.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…1dfdbacked No | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…7274backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 54.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 53.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…0f76backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…3c05backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…d7c4backed Yes | 32c | 49.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…7e4dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2d…31febacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No | 70c | 39.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 80c | 36.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed No | 55c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 47c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…fa88backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…de59backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…a89abacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…b45dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…3e88backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.