Fifa International · resolved market
Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b0490252b57650cc48c937dd1418a4cb62d678bf524d6a43eef56293a38189c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 407.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 7c | 391.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 337.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 19c | 260$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 5c | 215.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 11c | 200.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 145.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.