Fifa International · resolved market
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcfd1d9453e5548e2135bde392139d585710f58a657a17fdae27b6d38f6c1a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked No | 12c | 589.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 33c | 307.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…1f1abacked No | 19c | 198.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 25c | 171.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 150.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 140.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5044…ae88backed Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8f…c679backed Yes | 79c | 126.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No | 54c | 117.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 48c | 111.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 74c | 109.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +54%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…5903backed Yes | 50c | 100.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…3055backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 36c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 20c | 75.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 20c | 70.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 44c | 60.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 45c | 60.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Yes | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…44e7backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…94b4backed Yes | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…3b98backed Yes | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 133 | 64.7%86 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed Yes | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.