Fifa International · resolved market
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94fb72bd79a9f59307d70299d6dc45d7ccae676ad58c7d196ffcd91759b1ad6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,157$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 11c | 311.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 223.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…4404backed No | 65c | 222$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…94b4backed Yes | 18c | 216.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b7…b5c2backed Yes | 5c | 215$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 15c | 183.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Yes | 25c | 167.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 143.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 54c | 123.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 12c | 114.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed No | 76c | 92.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 46c | 86.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…3055backed Yes | 19c | 85.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 81.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 46c | 80.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 236 | 40.3%95 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 22c | 71.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 59.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 205 | 39%80 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 65c | 47.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 34c | 38.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed No | 67c | 27.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.