Lionel Messi: 3+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x803fe0ac50ee30e69ef7677706296c856ac0dd47010e3fae1f8a7fc39f093b1d

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,468 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf17a…fa3abacked No	39c	4,192$1,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,565.08	162	60.5%98 W · 64 L	+22.3wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+29%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No	43c	2,263$971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,291.65	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x351a…0302backed Yes	57c	1,754$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-6.1wins	-0.20per pick	52cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	61c	1,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes	55c	750$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.37	232	51.7%120 W · 112 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes	63c	684.67$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.34	315	54.6%172 W · 143 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No	40c	674.97$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.81	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb00c…dfa2backed Yes	61c	656.02$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.19per pick	53cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa678…bc50backed Yes	80c	618.75$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed No	45c	524.36$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.35	791	49.2%389 W · 402 L	+28.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	42c	495.97$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.12	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3167…02b5backed Yes	60c	460.1$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf29…e395backed Yes	56c	414.24$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.97	98	30.6%30 W · 68 L	-7.2wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	36c	302.28$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.35	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes	62c	300$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	45c	300$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4793…a932backed Yes	56c	272.73$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	39c	223.16$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.22	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Yes	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Yes	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5062…be14backed Yes	61c	196.72$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	238	63.4%151 W · 87 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6aeb…2b0bbacked Yes	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	62c	150$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-15%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked No	45c	119.19$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.55	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	40c	109.86$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.92	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Yes	60c	101.27$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.88	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d6…d3dabacked No	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	20cpaid	+329.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3150…4b8ebacked Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.20per pick	55cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf70…50e9backed Yes	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+121.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0195…1e21backed Yes	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	441	44%194 W · 247 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Yes	54c	82$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1228…c112backed Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3221…12b2backed Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x608f…56d2backed Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc12…f422backed Yes	62c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes	58c	71.43$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63e6…ea35backed No	42c	71.43$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.43	125	49.6%62 W · 63 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	58c	65.53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.09	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d8…698bbacked Yes	64c	62.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed Yes	57c	59.65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes	56c	53.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa32…99a6backed Yes	57c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x251f…2967backed Yes	63c	42.86$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	71cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	59c	42.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes	59c	41.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes	59c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…08b7backed Yes	63c	39.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	99	34.3%34 W · 65 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c0…af74backed Yes	59c	38.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	60c	35.01$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5eb…d4e0backed Yes	62c	34.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf35f…72b5backed Yes	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes	59c	32.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	383	29.8%114 W · 269 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4094…9007backed Yes	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7675…49b0backed Yes	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.4wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc278…3144backed Yes	61c	30.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No	43c	30.12$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.07	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+12.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed No	40c	27.14$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed No	40c	25.85$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.51	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…0cabbacked Yes	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	238	55.5%132 W · 106 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73fb…ed58backed Yes	61c	19.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes	60c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38fb…c998backed Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	47cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lionel Messi: 3+ shotsthis page
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsYes won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsYes won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsYes won
Anthony Gordon: 1+ shotsYes won
Anthony Gordon: 2+ shotsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shotsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 2+ shotsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 3+ shotsNo won
Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on targetNo won
Bukayo Saka: 4+ shotsNo won
Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
Declan Rice: 1+ shotsYes won
Declan Rice: 2+ goalsNo won
Declan Rice: 2+ shotsNo won
Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsNo won
Eberechi Eze: 2+ goalsNo won
Elliot Anderson: 2+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsYes won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsYes won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsYes won
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsYes won
Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsNo won
Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
Harry Kane: 2+ shotsNo won
Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
Harry Kane: 3+ shotsNo won
Harry Kane: 4+ shotsNo won
Jordan Pickford: 4+ savesNo won
Jordan Pickford: 5+ savesNo won
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsNo won
Jude Bellingham: 4+ shotsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lionel Messi: 3+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event