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AI · resolved market

Will Ozzy Osbourne be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$703,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$339,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703,103 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bd8…f306backed Yes0c110,158$121 inLost-$120.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c28,062$59 inLost-$58.567510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7f…8095backed Yes2c7,539$153 inLost-$152.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45b…6eb6backed Yes1c7,070$64 inLost-$63.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b1…1846backed Yes1c7,067$55 inLost-$5590%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes1c6,673$47 inLost-$46.592133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4c…b77cbacked Yes1c6,383$51 inLost-$51.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef6…6a0abacked Yes1c6,071$55 inLost-$54.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d80…2d3cbacked Yes1c6,056$61 inLost-$60.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e30…2881backed Yes1c5,812$81 inLost-$81.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade9…f3f1backed Yes1c5,750$58 inLost-$57.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes0c5,718$11 inLost-$11.442941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,610$35 inLost-$34.541,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8277…059cbacked Yes0c5,568$22 inLost-$22.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf847…5bc9backed Yes1c3,319$32 inLost-$32.37100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f4…899fbacked Yes0c3,135$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed Yes1c2,980$20 inLost-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda48…30fcbacked Yes0c2,804$11 inLost-$11.2150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes1c2,337$20 inLost-$19.562429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes2c2,080$50 inLost-$502722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes1c1,789$20 inLost-$19.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328f…4079backed Yes3c1,424$40 inLost-$401020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e2b…e7e0backed Yes1c1,346$15 inLost-$14.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4966…0401backed Yes2c1,256$29 inLost-$2930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Yes1c1,251$10 inLost-$10.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf179…d450backed Yes1c1,122$12 inLost-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.