MLB · resolved market
Will Shohei Ohtani be named the 2025 World Series MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848a0657f8ac2958c5e8f81497cd07417c009106e6d17bcf2a434a3b3eb1ad67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa447…cc98backed Yes | 46c | 2,837$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 54c | 2,777$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.29 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 36c | 2,618$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 25c | 751.29$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 47c | 575.93$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 78c | 482.67$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 50c | 427.63$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…579ebacked Yes | 46c | 383.17$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 59c | 375.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 60c | 370.18$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 50c | 314.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…aa32backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…e077backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 26c | 166.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…bb3fbacked No | 62c | 162.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 69c | 145.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 58c | 141$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…c37dbacked Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 69c | 129.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 76c | 106.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Yes | 32c | 98.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…2008backed Yes | 62c | 83.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…4f71backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…4537backed Yes | 70c | 74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 73c | 68.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…2251backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Yes | 46c | 54.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…94d5backed Yes | 38c | 51.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…7c8cbacked No | 69c | 51.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 39c | 50.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…82ddbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…e464backed Yes | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 61c | 42.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 43c | 40.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…740bbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…fb0abacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…e3d8backed Yes | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 65c | 28.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Yes | 70c | 26.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…92d7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…c3f9backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 57c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shohei Ohtani be named the 2025 World Series MVP?this page
- Will Max Muncy be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be named the 2025 World Series MVP?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.