MLB · resolved market
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be named the 2025 World Series MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9d128c637d0334d11cf9ce7cba6ea380cf3d66af4d3c30bb1efc6a61a7cd99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 2,561$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.16 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 41c | 2,361$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed No | 1c | 907.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 65c | 388.32$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 14c | 185.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…4f71backed No | 8c | 126.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked No | 80c | 119.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 17c | 77.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 31c | 65.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…71a2backed Yes | 17c | 59.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…b6bdbacked No | 74c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be named the 2025 World Series MVP?this page
- Will Max Muncy be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.