MLB · resolved market
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be named the 2025 World Series MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342b519c83781ee1c595aeae2d14cd7d5520dafcaf9f18aa1aa9aa4f855a97a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,907$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.91 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 78c | 1,810$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes | 22c | 1,514$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 1,345$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 38c | 1,157$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.22 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Yes | 26c | 576.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 38c | 364.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Yes | 62c | 153.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 74c | 136.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 79c | 118.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…1ea4backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 19c | 75.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…f5a8backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be named the 2025 World Series MVP?this page
- Will Max Muncy be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani be named the 2025 World Series MVP?No won
- Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be named the 2025 World Series MVP?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.