Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f99d8d0221a775ca04249b00d86c02da178a897c7847c1c50972895758fcb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 2,505$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.43 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 20c | 1,206$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 915.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 17c | 750.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 675.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a91…fe87backed Yes | 16c | 648.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 26c | 612.13$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 4c | 531.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 520.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 9c | 510.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 7c | 465$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 21c | 455.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked No | 78c | 402$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 62c | 307.27$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 301.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 17c | 291.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 290.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 6c | 270.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 79c | 258$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 79c | 253.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 69c | 251.51$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…1b64backed Yes | 8c | 249.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 193.11$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 78c | 178.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 15c | 173.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 19c | 164.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 17c | 148$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 64c | 141.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…258cbacked No | 77c | 135.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 125.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…3e07backed Yes | 16c | 121.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 15c | 121.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 115.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 20c | 99.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 21c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 23c | 90.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 17c | 87.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 19c | 78.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 20c | 73.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 18c | 58.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Yes | 70c | 52.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…4d4bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 59c | 33.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…a6f5backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.