Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b78f8b6648d53af3f68d088220e847a5e54776736d9baf4deb0677a8e10771c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 25,166$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.56 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 60c | 9,338$5,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.49 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 8c | 5,447$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 32c | 5,005$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…5d91backed No | 19c | 4,074$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 58c | 3,283$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.71 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 70c | 2,924$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.66 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 28c | 2,902$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…b9e3backed Yes | 77c | 2,716$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 34c | 2,685$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.08 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 75c | 2,626$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.85 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,491$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 37c | 2,298$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 74c | 2,199$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,173$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 37c | 2,010$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 66c | 1,996$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 1,950$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.79 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 1,901$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.61 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 65c | 1,834$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed No | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed No | 35c | 1,629$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 69c | 1,628$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 1,594$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.47 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…f945backed Yes | 69c | 1,482$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 1c | 1,456$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0e…5001backed Yes | 32c | 1,453$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 7c | 1,443$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…e35ebacked No | 6c | 1,310$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 69c | 1,291$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 16c | 1,217$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 66c | 1,124$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.38 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 55c | 1,109$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.13 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 76c | 1,099$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…df4dbacked No | 73c | 1,045$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 1,026$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 73c | 999.99$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 72c | 898.39$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.65 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 29c | 895.56$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0367backed No | 38c | 876.13$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 38c | 865.91$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.16 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed No | 37c | 847.78$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +459.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 829.14$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 23c | 802.55$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 6c | 802.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 34c | 800$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.21 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 800$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 5c | 770.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 66c | 757.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9d…da2cbacked No | 68c | 743.09$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 19c | 722.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…42e6backed No | 76c | 719.7$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 70c | 713.73$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked No | 39c | 698.31$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…e408backed Yes | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked No | 47c | 669.58$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked No | 36c | 666.67$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 16c | 666.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 76c | 623.67$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.05 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 37c | 601.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.32 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…e2a0backed No | 4c | 570.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 559.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 554.99$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.84 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 65c | 548.19$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 68c | 526.57$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 64c | 520$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 65c | 519.08$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 32c | 499.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 16c | 499.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 52c | 474.25$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +167%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b6…21eabacked Yes | 67c | 470.48$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…a69cbacked No | 41c | 470.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 9c | 459.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…360cbacked No | 49c | 458.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…b148backed No | 42c | 455.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…5bc9backed Yes | 54c | 448.51$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b9…ec17backed Yes | 67c | 446.07$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 47c | 444.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 68c | 443.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 79c | 424.6$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…5689backed Yes | 39c | 422.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…79bcbacked No | 63c | 411.06$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked No | 17c | 409.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 388.44$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 373.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed Yes | 67c | 368.72$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked No | 4c | 365$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…c59bbacked No | 17c | 361$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +128%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed No | 56c | 360.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a22abacked No | 22c | 352.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 75c | 341.68$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…4fb8backed No | 51c | 335.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 4c | 326.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…1e1abacked No | 3c | 319.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…ec1ebacked No | 32c | 315.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…e7d5backed Yes | 71c | 314.19$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.