Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb1809c02cb66ca3d49857d47c50b8ccea26a0be970fa7af880a0d0ea08ca62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 44c | 19,421$8,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,514.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 19c | 18,340$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.43 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed No | 0c | 11,388$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 46c | 9,044$4,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,173.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 79c | 7,509$5,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 11c | 7,221$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.99 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 13c | 5,500$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.62 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 37c | 4,433$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed No | 63c | 3,891$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…bc8fbacked Yes | 73c | 3,700$2,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 68c | 3,672$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.5 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 64c | 2,548$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.04 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 40c | 2,379$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 78c | 2,365$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 19c | 2,243$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.29 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 58c | 2,143$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.36 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,993$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.33 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 48c | 1,884$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed Yes | 33c | 1,818$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed No | 13c | 1,798$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 58c | 1,796$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.64 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 28c | 1,540$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.87 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 15c | 1,500$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 16c | 1,363$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.49 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 26c | 1,336$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.64 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 1,289$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.66 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…b9e3backed No | 27c | 1,288$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 59c | 1,191$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 78c | 1,106$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 1,062$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 49c | 1,061$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.33 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 79c | 1,012$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 75c | 945.59$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.31 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 18c | 927.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 63c | 923.63$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 71c | 850.49$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.05 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 34c | 788.42$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.37 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 28c | 724.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 7c | 690.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 13c | 688.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 32c | 645.07$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…8c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 559.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 9c | 555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 35c | 550$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 546.61$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed No | 46c | 545.55$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.73 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +167%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 19c | 500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 493.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.58 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 9c | 484.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 8c | 479.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…b506backed No | 28c | 409.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 69c | 409.83$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 54c | 388.3$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.59 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 377.66$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 35c | 364.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 46c | 361.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.33 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…d1b7backed Yes | 9c | 360$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +218.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked No | 45c | 359.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 53c | 350$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 78c | 327.46$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 326$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 50c | 325.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes | 39c | 324.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 48c | 318.78$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed No | 36c | 310$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 56c | 305.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4598backed No | 10c | 292.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 31c | 288.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 29c | 239.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 27c | 237.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +88%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked No | 55c | 222$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 45c | 221.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…51cabacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 62c | 216$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 22c | 213.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…cab8backed No | 67c | 208.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 200.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 62c | 191.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 58c | 184.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed No | 44c | 184.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed No | 14c | 179.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 44c | 179.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 43c | 174.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked Yes | 64c | 163$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.