TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1604…ff0ebacked No44c19,421$8,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,514.71922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No19c18,340$3,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,405.436230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed No0c11,388$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.23110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No46c9,044$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,173.92035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes79c7,509$5,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.83666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No11c7,221$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.9915032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No13c5,500$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.6232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes37c4,433$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick22cpaid+171.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed No63c3,891$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-78.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…bc8fbacked Yes73c3,700$2,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes68c3,672$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes64c2,548$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.0419348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed No40c2,379$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes78c2,365$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.32025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No19c2,243$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2910127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes58c2,143$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.364240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-85.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8602657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes48c1,993$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.339831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes48c1,884$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473e…cfe2backed Yes33c1,818$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+157.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x190c…8cf4backed No13c1,798$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes58c1,796$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.642259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No28c1,540$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No15c1,500$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21914125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No16c1,363$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No26c1,336$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6410145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c1,289$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x17ed…b9e3backed No27c1,288$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.46955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed No59c1,191$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes78c1,106$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No15c1,062$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2911120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes49c1,061$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.3316544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes79c1,012$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.421735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95013714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes69c1,000$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No75c945.59$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.316833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No18c927.04$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2313943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes63c923.63$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.622045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes71c850.49$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.0523543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No34c788.42$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3711936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No28c724.28$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No7c690.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.324143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No13c688.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.045129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No32c645.07$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ee…8c9cbacked Yes15c559.07$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid+122.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No9c555$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No35c550$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.57338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No72c546.61$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.9817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed No46c545.55$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.731711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+167%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No19c500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9713556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c493.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.5814935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No9c484.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.213026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No8c479.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.552147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1328…b506backed No28c409.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked Yes69c409.83$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.822572%18 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked Yes8c399.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+135.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No54c388.3$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.595358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes71c377.66$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.292673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No35c364.91$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7613138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes46c361.72$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.337332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd448…d1b7backed Yes9c360$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+218.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No45c359.97$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed Yes53c350$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1631250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No78c327.46$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.522646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes12c326$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.1414230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No50c325.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.297556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes39c324.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.71080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes30c320$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.63655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No48c318.78$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.591952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed No36c310$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes56c305.01$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.012045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1892100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes16c299.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.9918725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b24…4598backed No10c292.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes31c288.36$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.011428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No29c239.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.46241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b55…01c6backed Yes27c237.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked No55c222$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No45c221.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x810c…51cabacked No46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes62c216$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.091435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed No22c213.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5590%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99e2…cab8backed No67c208.15$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c200.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes62c191.75$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.361546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes58c184.79$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.462213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b6…d233backed No44c184.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93a…6b34backed Yes6c180$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d2…73c2backed No14c179.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes44c179.25$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.383218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed No43c174.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.251625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733f…3e9bbacked Yes64c163$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.44966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.