TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,243,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,219,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,243,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Panthers24c500,000$120,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,999.9917041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bills76c292,376$222,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,170.3217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Bills77c137,411$105,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,807.9833553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Panthers23c100,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Bills77c93,437$71,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,490.612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills77c90,747$69,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,076.2944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Panthers22c70,000$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,399.9616836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Panthers22c62,466$13,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,807.847035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Bills75c41,072$30,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,268.1110061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills78c38,531$30,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,303.2247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Panthers25c30,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50010026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Panthers23c27,042$6,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,209.2122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Bills78c26,984$21,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,936.413979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Panthers22c25,871$5,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,647.8214951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bills77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bills76c20,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Panthers24c20,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8004944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bills78c18,000$14,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,96018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Panthers22c17,810$3,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,918.216545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…0a9bbacked Panthers22c17,400$3,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,82810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Panthers23c15,542$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.7224456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Panthers12c15,396$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.7830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Panthers3c14,108$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.7320026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills77c13,618$10,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.0186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills76c12,733$9,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Bills77c10,087$7,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.2124351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Panthers8c9,593$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.4113430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Panthers22c9,049$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.7514342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Panthers14c8,664$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Panthers15c7,540$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.5468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Panthers8c7,402$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.032128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x941f…8f75backed Bills78c6,200$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d7…924dbacked Bills78c6,200$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Panthers25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Bills76c5,863$4,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.0941248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc016…3c89backed Bills78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586b…313bbacked Bills78c4,846$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f2…0f55backed Panthers22c4,800$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Panthers24c4,444$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.5620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Panthers21c4,121$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.9118140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills78c3,914$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8611,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Panthers22c3,832$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.048550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Bills80c3,606$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.015459.3%32 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Bills77c3,500$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.3120646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa447…cc98backed Bills77c3,247$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills76c3,149$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.381,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed Panthers23c3,023$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.292839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Bills76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Panthers2c2,961$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.461486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bills77c2,941$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.4932050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Panthers1c2,922$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.651013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Bills77c2,760$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Panthers22c2,485$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.7383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Panthers19c2,473$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.6326547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Panthers2c2,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Panthers22c2,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.214443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…92ccbacked Panthers24c2,045$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4874341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Panthers22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Bills79c1,947$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8721227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e1b…3539backed Panthers22c1,800$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc94…dfbcbacked Bills79c1,800$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Panthers23c1,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bills79c1,705$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.2527348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Panthers16c1,614$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6950242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Panthers15c1,613$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Panthers25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Panthers22c1,564$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6613842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Bills77c1,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3457558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Panthers3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d85…43d8backed Bills78c1,449$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+158.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d46…8029backed Panthers23c1,448$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Panthers22c1,401$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed Panthers23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f3…2252backed Panthers22c1,290$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Bills76c1,249$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.682263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Panthers23c1,200$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27627633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x59b2…914ebacked Bills79c1,200$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Panthers6c1,200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…fd01backed Bills79c1,100$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Panthers6c1,066$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…a48fbacked Bills76c1,065$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.72857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Panthers24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Panthers22c1,039$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5820760.9%126 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd438…b80abacked Bills79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Panthers22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Panthers24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Panthers22c999.94$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9939242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked Bills78c961.54$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.543542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Bills78c939.09$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.64365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8c…1eb7backed Panthers22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-66.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1375…7d07backed Bills79c800$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Bills77c772.85$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.2324054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba9…afcebacked Bills79c700$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Panthers21c700$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14813040%52 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Bills76c699.97$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.996624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Panthers22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Bills78c644.36$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Panthers20c613.31$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011027.3%30 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Panthers22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210752.3%56 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Panthers21c593.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5410629.2%31 W · 75 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.