NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4be0eaabab70ae03ce5cf9b564b01724f9b71ce8981b6ba9a9455c3af6c0995

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Bills, Panthers
Resolved: Oct 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $161,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,793 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills	49c	43,296$21,076 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,219.97	477	38.6%184 W · 293 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bills	48c	28,589$13,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,912.55	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills	49c	25,000$12,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,750	136	54.4%74 W · 62 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Panthers	51c	24,981$12,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,740.53	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Panthers	52c	22,181$11,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,498.99	207	55.1%114 W · 93 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills	47c	11,656$5,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,133.77	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Panthers	50c	10,171$5,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,076.14	259	56.8%147 W · 112 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Panthers	52c	10,155$5,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,282.03	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bills	47c	7,551$3,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,001.82	181	56.9%103 W · 78 L	+11.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Panthers	53c	7,500$3,975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,975	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bills	49c	6,085$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,085.28	181	40.9%74 W · 107 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers	51c	6,045$3,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,093.39	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Panthers	53c	5,819$3,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,083.79	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Panthers	52c	5,157$2,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,657.71	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Panthers	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Panthers	51c	4,478$2,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,290.31	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Panthers	51c	3,270$1,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,667.7	206	61.2%126 W · 80 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Bills	50c	2,238$1,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,110.02	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Bills	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040.82	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Panthers	53c	2,040$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Panthers	54c	1,852$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Panthers	51c	1,831$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.95	412	48.5%200 W · 212 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Panthers	50c	1,656$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.84	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Panthers	52c	1,433$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.95	335	53.4%179 W · 156 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fdc…e35fbacked Panthers	53c	1,425$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97e…5340backed Bills	50c	1,423$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$712.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Panthers	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Panthers	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	150	44.7%67 W · 83 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Panthers	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	392	42.6%167 W · 225 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Panthers	53c	798.11$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Panthers	54c	742$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.68	163	46%75 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Panthers	53c	660.38$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-3.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bills	46c	654.1$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.21	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Panthers	53c	633.86$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.86	194	59.3%115 W · 79 L	+15.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Bills	49c	614.29$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.29	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Panthers	53c	567.35$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.7	163	51.5%84 W · 79 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Bills	48c	520$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.4	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Bills	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bills	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Bills	50c	450$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.54	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Bills	49c	428.83$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.7	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bills	48c	420$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.4	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Panthers	51c	306$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.06	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bills	49c	305$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.55	229	50.2%115 W · 114 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Panthers	52c	300$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.3	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-36%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Panthers	51c	259.14$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.16	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Panthers	52c	250$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	149	49%73 W · 76 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Panthers	43c	214$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.13	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills	47c	210$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.75	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Bills	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	120	39.2%47 W · 73 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd150…5983backed Bills	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Bills	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…7942backed Bills	50c	200.24$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.24	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Panthers	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Bills	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	161	39.1%63 W · 98 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Bills	50c	199$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.5	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc15f…98f9backed Bills	49c	163$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.13	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Bills	49c	160$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.6	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Bills	48c	156.25$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.25	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Bills	47c	150$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Bills	49c	107.39$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.77	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Bills	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	278	35.3%98 W · 180 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Panthers	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Bills	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	169	46.7%79 W · 90 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Panthers	50c	81.81$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.26	414	50.5%209 W · 205 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Bills	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc4…ef82backed Bills	49c	61.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.6	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Panthers	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	118	55.9%66 W · 52 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bills	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	297	51.5%153 W · 144 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Bills	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Bills	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…3363backed Bills	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Panthers	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe06f…1984backed Panthers	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bills	48c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	245	47.8%117 W · 128 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills	50c	38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Panthers	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-9.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Panthers	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e30…9dadbacked Panthers	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Bills	49c	35.78$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.08	89	56.2%50 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked Panthers	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68d…fb0abacked Bills	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54d…cce3backed Bills	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Panthers	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ba…70d8backed Bills	47c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Bills	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Panthers	50c	21.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1806…a29bbacked Panthers	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event