Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc432af9280482e26f71cb60e0f6f73b302cecb95371e1b076b99da1daa240211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,249,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,037,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,249,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3864…23e1backed No | 0c | 771,070$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked No | 1c | 421,835$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,492.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 0c | 377,196$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.57 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d285backed No | 2c | 351,179$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ed4abacked No | 1c | 324,386$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 315,899$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed No | 0c | 215,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…0fbabacked No | 0c | 206,010$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…4747backed No | 1c | 172,690$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked No | 0c | 156,614$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…4479backed No | 0c | 130,281$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919b…e190backed No | 1c | 129,196$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…df9bbacked No | 0c | 122,843$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…7242backed No | 0c | 116,582$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 1c | 105,555$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.99 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…ce17backed No | 0c | 102,123$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…63acbacked No | 0c | 98,257$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 0c | 89,202$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…6c55backed No | 1c | 82,969$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0b…0b4ebacked No | 0c | 81,760$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 1c | 74,600$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.18 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed No | 1c | 73,050$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…523bbacked No | 0c | 71,496$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…f40ebacked No | 1c | 66,349$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…1addbacked No | 0c | 66,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…4d5ebacked No | 0c | 65,360$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed No | 1c | 59,660$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed No | 0c | 57,413$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +477.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…7c14backed No | 1c | 52,281$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…a0cdbacked No | 1c | 51,117$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…0e24backed No | 0c | 50,012$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…3e06backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed No | 1c | 48,635$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 0c | 48,545$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.05 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…7be7backed No | 0c | 48,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked No | 0c | 47,429$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 44,416$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed No | 0c | 43,500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed No | 0c | 42,233$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…99a8backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…c18dbacked No | 0c | 39,690$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd4…28a5backed No | 1c | 37,992$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed No | 0c | 34,555$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 16c | 34,085$5,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,403.18 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9acbacked No | 0c | 33,861$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…d930backed No | 1c | 32,382$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…a5bcbacked No | 1c | 31,975$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…ad4ebacked No | 0c | 31,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…eab4backed No | 0c | 31,470$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 1c | 30,810$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…c6d7backed No | 1c | 29,091$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…56ecbacked No | 0c | 26,680$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…9124backed No | 1c | 25,593$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…be6dbacked No | 1c | 24,899$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…c851backed No | 0c | 24,850$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…2804backed No | 1c | 24,788$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…3e87backed No | 0c | 24,439$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed No | 2c | 24,364$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…2111backed No | 0c | 23,257$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…2082backed No | 1c | 23,033$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…bd62backed No | 1c | 22,382$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee6…7633backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…60bebacked No | 0c | 20,904$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed No | 1c | 20,857$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…759dbacked No | 0c | 20,820$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…488fbacked No | 0c | 20,670$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 0c | 20,261$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…892cbacked No | 0c | 20,152$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…6a77backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…6c17backed No | 0c | 19,995$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…1a3bbacked No | 1c | 19,928$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…a07fbacked No | 1c | 19,742$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…3871backed No | 1c | 19,556$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…dc05backed No | 0c | 18,998$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…4bd6backed No | 1c | 18,584$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 0c | 18,563$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked No | 2c | 18,467$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.79 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 0c | 18,425$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…0605backed No | 0c | 18,252$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…72f1backed No | 0c | 17,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 7c | 16,321$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…b71fbacked No | 0c | 16,250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d83…42cebacked No | 1c | 15,832$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…4c12backed No | 1c | 15,789$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8b…2480backed No | 1c | 15,424$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…1b59backed No | 1c | 15,339$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…e4f1backed No | 1c | 15,102$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…88e8backed No | 1c | 15,068$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0e…f946backed No | 1c | 15,014$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 1c | 15,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…d86bbacked No | 1c | 14,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…f907backed No | 1c | 14,447$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…1fa2backed No | 1c | 14,279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 2c | 14,172$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.55 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 0c | 14,162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…0a81backed No | 0c | 13,708$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 77c | 13,454$10,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.96 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?this page
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 14?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 15?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 16?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 17?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 18?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 19?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 21?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 22?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 23?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 24?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 25?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 26?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 29?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 31?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?No won
- Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.