Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ae9b97cc4620d5d8183405c535d8c85458ba72f4ca0ff59c96e3420237da7b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…aaffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 6,666$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.99 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 9c | 3,019$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,941$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 10c | 1,561$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 375.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 9c | 359.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed Yes | 16c | 344.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…9375backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…f287backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?this page
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 14?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 15?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 16?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 17?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 18?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 19?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 21?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 22?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 23?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 24?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 25?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 26?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 29?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 31?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?No won
- Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.