Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4f9ef43cfdf5290cd2818eaaaf608bc02734e6d8c22ed5df566c0ccc77cab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 8c | 15,440$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 73c | 8,905$6,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.88 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 21c | 4,123$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 27c | 4,026$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 19c | 3,515$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 15c | 3,147$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.57 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…efa2backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 0c | 2,875$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a4…f692backed Yes | 2c | 2,276$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…523bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 1,420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 1,350$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 1,170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…7242backed Yes | 6c | 1,073$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 940.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 24c | 824$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 7c | 675.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 621.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 21c | 476.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…8001backed Yes | 7c | 433$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 7c | 353.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…f287backed Yes | 15c | 291.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 28c | 270$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 70c | 223.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…3be6backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 6c | 191$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 9c | 159$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…e12abacked Yes | 25c | 119.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 38c | 105.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…5a44backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 13c | 98.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…fc89backed Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…c498backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…8743backed Yes | 32c | 61.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…9375backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…ffacbacked Yes | 39c | 38.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…e1babacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?this page
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 14?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 15?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 16?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 17?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 18?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 19?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 21?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 22?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 23?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 24?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 25?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 26?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 29?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 31?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?No won
- Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.