Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68dc847a7d530783fab06df79e62c8970a279a4d85a46a8a36c17b09efcc0ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 9,900$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.07 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,590$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 5,564$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 21c | 891.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.79 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 67c | 880$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 37c | 518.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 40c | 319.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 301.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 31c | 237.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 233.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 25c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 105.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…3d31backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 55c | 85.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 83.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 54c | 77.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…14eabacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 60c | 34.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…a42bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked No | 36c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6143…938fbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 79c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?this page
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 14?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 15?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 16?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 17?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 18?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 19?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 21?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 22?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 23?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 24?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 25?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 26?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 29?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 31?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.