Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4668b63cb67ab4c34184b770186a947e4431d26d71ec8793f889628250f628bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 0c | 50,102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed Yes | 1c | 30,775$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…b875backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 52c | 15,929$8,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,223.65 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 15,555$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 1c | 11,598$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 9c | 11,521$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 56c | 10,520$5,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,607.35 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…aaffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 21c | 9,836$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.22 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 7,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.94 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 26c | 6,539$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.23 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 17c | 3,860$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 39c | 3,260$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.6 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 36c | 2,913$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.14 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 30c | 2,689$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.64 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 9c | 2,666$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 7cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,655$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.41 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 27c | 2,653$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.08 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,478$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,270$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…efd2backed Yes | 38c | 1,998$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Yes | 66c | 1,949$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…e585backed Yes | 5c | 1,936$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 64c | 1,929$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 1,739$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.51 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5079backed Yes | 44c | 1,683$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 17c | 1,650$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,606$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.51 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…1f4fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,594$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 13c | 1,545$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 9c | 1,462$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…b0a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,326$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,320$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…e591backed Yes | 49c | 1,316$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 44c | 1,187$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 27c | 1,175$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 21c | 1,065$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 50c | 1,036$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.69 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 47c | 1,002$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.65 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76c…cb0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Yes | 5c | 980.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes | 15c | 963.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…0920backed Yes | 42c | 960.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 38c | 916.6$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 26c | 910.54$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 69c | 829.18$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 818.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…ce05backed Yes | 14c | 795.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 5c | 765$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 17c | 722.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 74c | 678.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked Yes | 18c | 655.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 26c | 633.43$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 4c | 621.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed Yes | 65c | 594.59$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 44c | 589.44$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 25c | 557.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 3c | 477.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…a75bbacked Yes | 8c | 477.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 11c | 456.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 431.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 413.66$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 5c | 409.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…9159backed Yes | 6c | 402.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…8f4abacked Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…19e8backed Yes | 64c | 387.1$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…9158backed Yes | 42c | 369.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 17c | 359.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes | 25c | 356.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…5da2backed Yes | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 59c | 345.63$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…f831backed Yes | 6c | 340.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fc…a861backed Yes | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c11…e2bdbacked Yes | 59c | 339.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…1791backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 27c | 332.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…21a1backed Yes | 15c | 320$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Yes | 44c | 301.51$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.37 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…523bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…d84bbacked Yes | 6c | 299.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 21c | 299.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…12a4backed Yes | 44c | 289.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 42c | 288.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…7242backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 40c | 257.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 61c | 257.74$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 6c | 249.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…8b9ebacked Yes | 74c | 245.49$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 41c | 242.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…adc1backed Yes | 29c | 228$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…3be6backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 218.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?this page
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 14?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 15?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 16?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 17?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 18?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 19?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 21?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 22?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 23?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 24?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 25?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 26?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 29?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 31?No won
- Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes won
- Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.