China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf568a742c994f314126e0be0a1592dea614c5cefa012fab74837ede2ff7533f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 10c | 56,800$5,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,512.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…8ba2backed No | 20c | 29,494$5,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,985.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 13,113$9,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 72c | 11,195$8,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed No | 30c | 8,000$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 7,717$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,184.51 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 24c | 5,667$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 53c | 4,837$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 75c | 4,572$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 72c | 4,378$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 79c | 3,938$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 73c | 3,857$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 28c | 3,633$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,627$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 55c | 3,534$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 68c | 3,250$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…07e8backed No | 7c | 3,028$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 7c | 2,838$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 50c | 2,111$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 74c | 2,100$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 22c | 2,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 71c | 1,974$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…8f52backed No | 72c | 1,947$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…12d5backed No | 53c | 1,920$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 26c | 1,712$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 46c | 1,608$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 41c | 1,536$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…7b1cbacked No | 33c | 1,530$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…8ee9backed No | 67c | 1,520$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 35c | 1,436$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 39c | 1,426$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 53c | 1,415$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…e5dbbacked No | 79c | 1,262$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…1bf7backed Yes | 45c | 1,198$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 1,188$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…0659backed No | 31c | 1,100$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,090$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 15c | 1,067$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 1,066$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 31c | 1,030$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…5ed5backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…ab80backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 41c | 999.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 38c | 982.45$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 50c | 957.27$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 63c | 928.61$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…f991backed Yes | 37c | 901$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d6cebacked No | 74c | 894.03$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 42c | 876$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 62c | 840.87$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…6bf7backed Yes | 35c | 806.97$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed Yes | 25c | 801.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 79c | 799$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 793.74$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed No | 13c | 775.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 58c | 766.24$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed No | 48c | 721.06$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 73c | 699.99$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…0972backed Yes | 34c | 624$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 599.56$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.94 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 598.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…6093backed No | 34c | 585.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 36c | 556.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 18c | 550.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +450.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…b959backed Yes | 40c | 543.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 31c | 514.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 23c | 511.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…98cbbacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 70c | 499.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…34d4backed No | 25c | 493.51$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed No | 36c | 450.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 442.32$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.52 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 23c | 442.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 42c | 440.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 68c | 436.42$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6022…93a7backed Yes | 70c | 432.31$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…03c8backed No | 31c | 428.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…00b9backed Yes | 77c | 420$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed No | 30c | 407.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…cb93backed No | 75c | 400.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 79c | 395.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 28c | 372.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…0237backed No | 14c | 366.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 48c | 355.7$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked No | 29c | 349.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked No | 29c | 343.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…5689backed No | 79c | 343.7$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes | 25c | 336.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 325.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 72c | 321.87$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 63c | 319.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…d648backed No | 33c | 305.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 32c | 300.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed No | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.