Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd6f3ea16148d27421060400dc35be7d70a6f6b131a46d5a2685fcffc53f044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 64c | 23,114$14,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,367.79 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 48c | 14,766$7,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,629.95 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 43c | 7,382$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.16 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 50c | 6,297$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 47c | 5,877$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.57 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 61c | 5,027$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.85 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 45c | 4,873$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.51 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 18c | 4,702$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.76 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 39c | 4,412$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.26 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 4,263$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.82 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 22c | 3,240$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.58 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes | 59c | 2,897$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 31c | 2,701$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,611$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.07 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 46c | 2,504$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 62c | 2,323$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.57 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 53c | 2,115$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.43 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 48c | 1,879$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.74 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 45c | 1,863$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.81 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 60c | 1,656$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 36c | 1,458$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 1,441$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.12 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 36c | 1,361$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 53c | 1,283$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.95 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,250$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.34 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 66c | 1,216$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.78 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 48c | 1,131$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 1,113$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.32 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,089$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 42c | 1,046$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.92 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 1,035$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.6 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,008$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 46c | 949.99$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b5…23e8backed No | 35c | 907.46$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…7e98backed Yes | 65c | 900$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Yes | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 56c | 899.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…e57ebacked No | 59c | 851.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 78c | 837.24$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 38c | 828.91$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.05 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 26c | 828$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 48c | 802.27$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 41c | 800.38$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.95 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…33a1backed Yes | 58c | 792.61$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 54c | 750$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 42c | 721.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 61c | 699.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 64c | 678.89$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 50c | 644.78$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 41c | 603.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.85 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 44c | 601.29$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b86…3c74backed Yes | 57c | 599.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 69c | 582.4$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 42c | 546.08$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 532.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 57c | 521.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 39c | 518.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 40c | 505$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.75 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 12c | 482.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 57c | 479.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 26c | 476.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 475.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 58c | 450$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…e498backed Yes | 51c | 399.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…e077backed Yes | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 343.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Yes | 31c | 340$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…e378backed No | 47c | 316.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 73c | 314.26$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 68c | 308.07$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 37c | 290$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 286.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…25b0backed Yes | 60c | 281.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…3e44backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Yes | 39c | 259.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…e365backed Yes | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 227.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…69aabacked Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yes | 32c | 206.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 51c | 206$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 38c | 201.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed Yes | 48c | 200.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?this page
- Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.