Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0747e8df5a089aa04565984da6f02f3e6c3b703a8c7b70a0f62385aeffe0838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 52c | 2,032$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 64c | 1,730$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.7 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 35c | 1,625$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.25 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 55c | 998.71$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.97 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 51c | 829.99$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 53c | 539.57$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 37c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 48c | 311$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 45c | 289.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.89 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 60c | 274.87$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 48c | 219.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 48c | 209.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 50c | 201.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 186.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 43c | 185$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 49c | 170$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 51c | 158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked No | 68c | 73.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 35c | 69.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 59.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 70c | 51.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 45c | 44.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked Yes | 41c | 40.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 43c | 38.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 44c | 37.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…1103backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed No | 69c | 30.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 50c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…721cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.