Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc623b2d8adf4560e757b9d25ef03c5b621f7aead6b521476f4e05afca99f12a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,042$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 27c | 421.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 72c | 414.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 30c | 400.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 22c | 386.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 35c | 372.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…20ecbacked No | 38c | 343.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 79c | 340.65$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 77c | 291.13$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…3234backed No | 39c | 179.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 154.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…72f1backed No | 9c | 149.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…c649backed No | 21c | 142.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 138.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed No | 23c | 131.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 79c | 125.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 24c | 125.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…f96ebacked No | 41c | 121.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 108.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…7418backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…aa2fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…572dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 99.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe745…61e8backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 51c | 87.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 20c | 86.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes | 55c | 82.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…c600backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…c8a6backed No | 50c | 64.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed No | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…9480backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 76c | 56.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb27…9668backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 76c | 39.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 79c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…951cbacked Yes | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…4658backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.