Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf2670919c0640ca4310357f4df7722bb8c005e1f5ef014bf59cc1b97e6524d2

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,331 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x49b6…170cbacked No	41c	1,866$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.39	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	62c	1,605$994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.74	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked No	3c	1,537$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.05	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No	31c	1,166$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.15	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes	72c	714$517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.85	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	56c	557$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.08	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No	33c	525.8$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.68	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	33c	480.38$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.45	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c6…9a89backed Yes	61c	407.15$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.62	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No	15c	387.75$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No	32c	319.97$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.39	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+6.4wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes	67c	318.5$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.1	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed No	31c	299.97$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.99	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.8wins	-0.27per pick	54cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes	71c	281.91$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.91	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	34c	263$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.42	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	31c	261.94$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes	56c	218.96$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.16	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes	63c	213$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.65	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	66c	167.37$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.6	174	49.4%86 W · 88 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes	70c	155.82$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.3	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	58cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes	77c	150$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No	36c	150$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77da…87ebbacked Yes	67c	148.73$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.73	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes	68c	146.11$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.11	111	41.4%46 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…43eabacked Yes	68c	145.59$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.59	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+73.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	27c	145.25$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.68	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04f…bb1ebacked No	33c	136.52$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…318abacked No	37c	136.38$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.9	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	36cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3939…68cfbacked Yes	74c	136.03$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.03	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-87.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a3e…c8e5backed Yes	69c	133.05$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd383…c77abacked Yes	61c	130.37$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.37	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed No	26c	126.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe56b…2a2dbacked No	38c	105.77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked No	49c	105$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-5.1wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-37%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No	38c	104.04$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	20c	101.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	776	36.9%286 W · 490 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	70c	100.55$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.17	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	63c	93.41$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.64	408	28.9%118 W · 290 L	-29.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-36%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef40…d88bbacked Yes	66c	91.18$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.18	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	62c	90$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	194	45.9%89 W · 105 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No	37c	86.96$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.45	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No	26c	84.39$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No	36c	82.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes	67c	80$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.8	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	65c	75$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.25	125	24.8%31 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No	24c	70$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	196	39.8%78 W · 118 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	29c	69.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…aed7backed Yes	78c	63.8$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	65c	60$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf53d…9f2cbacked Yes	67c	59.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd412…286cbacked No	34c	58.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31f…8898backed Yes	68c	58.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	64cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9a…44b5backed Yes	74c	53.87$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0788…adc1backed No	62c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No	39c	37.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes	68c	36.52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.69	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes	64c	33.23$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	139	50.4%70 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	65c	32.11$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.29	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No	39c	30.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked No	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+78.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed No	34c	30$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes	40c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.8wins	-0.43per pick	65cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8574backed Yes	68c	21.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c19…836cbacked Yes	69c	21.65$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.65	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.1	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5301…e09dbacked No	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c45…7b73backed Yes	58c	19.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6137…0278backed Yes	54c	18.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event