Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f44b02b8098e6727e51b9741fc6d2bb2ee177c66e80c7b72e533719848d6bf

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,525 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3df0…7791backed Yes	1c	1,184$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+107.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No	25c	245.91$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.02	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No	48c	245$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.33	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	45c	213.75$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.66	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No	55c	181.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.07	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd383…c77abacked Yes	73c	175.46$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.76	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No	58c	172.62$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.62	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	62c	168.73$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No	60c	165.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.78	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	73cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes	66c	163.33$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.85	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No	54c	150.9$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.9	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No	55c	150$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.14	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed No	48c	150$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.8wins	-0.27per pick	54cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes	51c	142.78$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.88	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes	75c	132.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	44c	124.11$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.45	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes	52c	112$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No	42c	103.93$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.9	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+6.4wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa221…7588backed Yes	48c	103.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	48c	101.27$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	96	26%25 W · 71 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…aa2fbacked No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	194	45.9%89 W · 105 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	52c	99.99$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No	53c	98$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.64	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a7…9480backed Yes	52c	96.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes	70c	95.94$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.84	73	21.9%16 W · 57 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No	45c	94.69$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.21	111	41.4%46 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49e…4808backed Yes	53c	94.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.21per pick	49cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	49c	82.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.06	408	28.9%118 W · 290 L	-29.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-36%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe82a…c8a6backed No	28c	82.14$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+72.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf4…f56abacked Yes	44c	80.37$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes	44c	79.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes	52c	73.21$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2957…5e66backed Yes	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	35cpaid	+74%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	31c	66.27$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.39	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-41%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…3f13backed Yes	45c	59.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…aed7backed Yes	69c	58.34$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes	66c	53.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.11	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	125	24.8%31 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	165	41.2%68 W · 97 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	+22.6wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	41c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	202	47%95 W · 107 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…086abacked No	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7cf…0c26backed No	41c	48.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	24cpaid	+28%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	29c	48$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.08	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Yes	64c	46.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes	74c	44.59$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No	26c	44.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+25%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb2…abeabacked No	34c	44.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.04	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9f…7c52backed Yes	48c	42.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes	51c	41.75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes	80c	40$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	49c	39.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.38	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…7309backed Yes	56c	39.61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No	55c	36.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.07	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	50c	34.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.18	217	51.6%112 W · 105 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d15…272bbacked Yes	49c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No	58c	32.18$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e60…c937backed Yes	51c	31.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4cf…f9bcbacked No	53c	26.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No	45c	23.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…e5c6backed Yes	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea8…ae94backed Yes	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea0…536dbacked Yes	50c	20.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	427	38.9%166 W · 261 L	+30.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a8…9bafbacked No	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34b…e235backed Yes	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event