Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a60b734c93a53bcd9ea37f035ecd75d8296db857e705dc03590c2a12e40a803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,752$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 80c | 528.08$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 23c | 499.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.89 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 32c | 499.83$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 357.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 75c | 350$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…1b92backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed No | 78c | 258.06$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 21c | 239.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 211.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 10c | 172.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 77c | 143.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 138.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 135$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…72a0backed Yes | 15c | 133.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +232.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 20c | 126.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…a5a1backed No | 79c | 125.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 21c | 103.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 17c | 99.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…cb0bbacked Yes | 24c | 53.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…5f25backed Yes | 28c | 48.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 74c | 27.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…a195backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…1ec9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…08eabacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.