Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb2d64343b37087b70cd14360b4ca9b9647d571c2b851c189986a6737275c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 69c | 1,014$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.25 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 26c | 772.05$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 29c | 600$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 78c | 329.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…2395backed No | 47c | 212.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 73c | 148$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…1e74backed Yes | 71c | 140.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 60c | 124.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…f925backed No | 79c | 119.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 73c | 112.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 54c | 104.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 71c | 98.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…6842backed No | 36c | 96.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 29c | 72.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…4808backed Yes | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 33c | 68.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 21c | 63.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 74c | 53.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 59c | 50.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 49.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 77c | 49.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 78c | 48.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…f243backed Yes | 71c | 47.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…e200backed Yes | 71c | 42.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…fcdcbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 32.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…409bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 25.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…5624backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…ece8backed Yes | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.