Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ed6e405cc16c85fae74f2e19e4f6f702d097ed134f6fc401bbb73245e2395d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f85…8031backed No | 6c | 2,157$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,999$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.77 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 78c | 1,014$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.42 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 22c | 999$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.22 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 57c | 759.99$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.59 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 41c | 738.69$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.38 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 58c | 587.58$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 58c | 568.55$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.96 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 54c | 547.43$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.57 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 52c | 500$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 459.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.92 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 47c | 386.46$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 56c | 330.28$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.75 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 41c | 299.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 32c | 284.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 47c | 251.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 239.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.58 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 65c | 228.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 60c | 214.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…bb1ebacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +201%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 65c | 193.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 42c | 184.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 42c | 179.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 43c | 171.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 56c | 168.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 41c | 161.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 154.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 58c | 123$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 52c | 121.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 55c | 119.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 55c | 102.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 59c | 100.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 73c | 95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed No | 59c | 88.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 85.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 79c | 66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 58c | 64.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…c856backed Yes | 39c | 64.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…c600backed Yes | 63c | 63.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 79c | 63.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked No | 65c | 61.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 60.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…e72fbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yes | 38c | 58.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 40c | 55.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 49c | 48.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 50c | 40.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…2d64backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed No | 57c | 34.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked No | 72c | 34.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 58c | 33.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes | 48c | 30.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…892cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked No | 80c | 24.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.