Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc8d34f232ec8ebd5c7ab4c2efb3df5cdb6a49f26d3e3b7d12b776d0df76ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 14,197$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,555$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.74 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 79c | 1,164$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 45c | 598.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 56c | 421.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 63c | 289.14$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 35c | 283.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 35c | 251.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.85 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 54c | 247.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 52c | 229.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 63c | 202.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 57c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 47c | 199.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 37c | 173.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 62c | 148$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…1e74backed Yes | 71c | 141.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 73c | 137.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 108$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 30c | 106$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…aa2fbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked No | 44c | 91.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 26c | 74.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…6842backed No | 44c | 68.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 51c | 67.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 28c | 65.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed No | 39c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked No | 48c | 60.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 71c | 56.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 29c | 54.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 46c | 54.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…aed7backed Yes | 67c | 54.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…e235backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…cb0bbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…2e09backed No | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 48c | 42.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 40.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…4ebabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44b…79ffbacked Yes | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 71c | 24.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…3312backed Yes | 66c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.