Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d52770cd9493a459568ddf0326dfd915b787da1d14a477aa1b504d3ad1eed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,555$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.74 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…e9dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 601.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 73c | 545.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed No | 53c | 492.24$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 346.65$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 35c | 335.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 66c | 304.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 46c | 300.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 65c | 299.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 48c | 297.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 233.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 50c | 199.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 50c | 190.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…1e74backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 43c | 187.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 44c | 167.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 43c | 166.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 57c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7c…f70ebacked Yes | 58c | 117.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 51c | 111.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 41c | 110.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 48c | 104.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 60c | 103.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…aa2fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…2724backed No | 66c | 98.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 41c | 90.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 66c | 76.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…003bbacked No | 56c | 73.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +203.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 32c | 70.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked No | 72c | 69.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…d88bbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 33c | 38.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…704cbacked Yes | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 43c | 37.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked No | 67c | 36.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 60c | 36.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…9f04backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…ad90backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…4808backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked No | 65c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…aed7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb27…9668backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…9e62backed No | 65c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 70c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.