Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe099310e095cef92526d3410317f1254e1123584c54b5833fa6bbd2a903e2249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 33c | 643.69$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 64c | 385.38$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.63 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 46c | 339.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 38c | 332.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 75c | 292.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 31c | 279.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 66c | 248.27$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 28c | 241.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Yes | 66c | 225.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 64c | 186.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 35c | 170.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 66c | 153$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…2f60backed No | 41c | 138.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 33c | 135.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 59c | 116.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed No | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 69c | 86.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 31c | 76.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…bc99backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 33c | 64.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 66c | 56.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 64c | 52.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 50.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 40c | 50.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +201%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 69c | 48.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 34c | 46.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…9f04backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked Yes | 68c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed No | 40c | 35.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked Yes | 64c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…e235backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.