Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb9ac7fbd5cdfcaf419909e5903019cb901543081ced1d344b9de5ab06a749f

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,219 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	62c	1,780$1,097 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.5	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	35c	1,379$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.54	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	51c	1,048$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.41	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	66c	761.59$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.57	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed No	44c	749.99$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	+2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No	30c	632$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.73	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc97a…267dbacked No	33c	597.68$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	70c	555.16$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.22	194	45.9%89 W · 105 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	63c	554.97$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.34	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No	39c	419.66$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.75	111	41.4%46 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No	53c	400$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.75	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No	40c	369.63$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.85	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	65c	350$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+6.9wins	+0.22per pick	33cpaid	+116%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes	66c	300$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	64c	294.81$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.39	408	28.9%118 W · 290 L	-29.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-36%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No	28c	251.27$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.88	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	20c	240.33$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes	65c	224$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.4	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a42…b1a5backed No	51c	214.96$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	66c	197$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.55	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.7wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	66c	183.48$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.35	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes	69c	145.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.22	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	26c	140.34$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.09	217	51.6%112 W · 105 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No	30c	138.35$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bd…3dc6backed Yes	72c	138.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.07	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes	66c	129.98$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.69	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes	77c	123.37$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.37	73	60.3%44 W · 29 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	65c	118.12$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.67	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba14…318abacked No	36c	109.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	36cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No	39c	104.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.89	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes	69c	101.71$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.71	73	21.9%16 W · 57 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	776	36.9%286 W · 490 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	125	24.8%31 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-5.7wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked No	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	341	43.4%148 W · 193 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes	57c	80$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+4.0wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	40c	73.14$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…39b1backed No	31c	69.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes	67c	65.99$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.78	133	60.9%81 W · 52 L	+18.4wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb31f…8898backed Yes	68c	58.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	64cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	69c	56$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	37c	51.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	174	49.4%86 W · 88 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes	67c	51.33$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed No	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-5.5wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	77c	49.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No	27c	49.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	+116.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5206…cb0bbacked No	53c	47.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No	42c	44.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	313	44.1%138 W · 175 L	+19.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb34b…e235backed Yes	69c	43.17$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x815f…aed7backed No	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd605…0653backed No	39c	40.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc67b…aa2fbacked No	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cf…f9bcbacked No	37c	36.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No	37c	36.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0930…3234backed No	34c	35.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes	72c	34.72$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes	59c	32.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	139	50.4%70 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes	68c	29.92$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.67	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6d…2d64backed Yes	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	63cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…f07ebacked Yes	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…1748backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event