TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes45c999.04$454 inLost-$454.267856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No55c455$250 inWon+$205.332035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No58c300$174 inWon+$12616541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No63c159.05$100 inWon+$59.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No47c150$71 inWon+$79.534143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No58c150$87 inWon+$633666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes40c133.37$54 inLost-$53.8549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes41c120.73$50 inLost-$50.0340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes34c117.65$40 inLost-$40287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes40c100$40 inLost-$4012524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes37c71$26 inLost-$26.273528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No46c65$30 inWon+$35.120143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes42c50$21 inLost-$212437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No59c50$30 inWon+$20.522846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No59c40.68$24 inWon+$16.68825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c40$19 inLost-$18.886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No47c35$17 inWon+$18.510153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No62c30$19 inWon+$11.34957.1%28 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No62c27.42$17 inWon+$10.423770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes46c25$12 inLost-$11.589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.