Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbca54c742f388ace2f58fe1c0b7f270d81e5559190f62b384e09541aba025de5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 8c | 2,814$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 56c | 1,115$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 42c | 1,016$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.06 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 56c | 599.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 72c | 597$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.51 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 49c | 499.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 44c | 498.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.14 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 43c | 423.18$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.52 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 57c | 395.46$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 34c | 370$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 35c | 367.69$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 65c | 308$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 25c | 299.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 61c | 193.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 72c | 182.19$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 175.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 46c | 169.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 43c | 169.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 60c | 167.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 63c | 159.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 43c | 110.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 46c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 54c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 42c | 104.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 58c | 95.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 46c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 32c | 81.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 51c | 79.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…2c9bbacked No | 39c | 76.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 69.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 62.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed No | 68c | 50.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 60c | 46.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked No | 61c | 39.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…72a0backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +232.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea0…536dbacked No | 49c | 35.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed No | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…aa2fbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…f56abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.